BETFAIR GUIDE

Cheltenham 2006 - Trading Ideas

Let me remind you that I know very little about horse racing, however it's still possible to make decent prices just from trading the morning prices. I don't particularly like Cheltenham for trading as there is so much money in the markets, and therefore price discrepancies are few and far between. You've also got more price movements taking place mainly as a result of the bookies' prices changing. 

However, there are still a few profitable trading opportunities available, and every day of the festival, I will update this site about 1.00 every day with trading ideas, that I identified in the morning. You shouldn't really trade after this as prices really start jumping about, and price discrepancies may simply be a result of the odds moving. Note I'm not trading these myself and aftertiming (anyone can do this), I'm simply identifying positions and detailing trading ideas that you may like to implement yourself in the future.

Day 1

There weren't a great deal of trading opportunities this morning, as you would expect with so much money in the market. However followers of Brave Inca in the 3.15 will have noted the price drifted out to 3.1 earlier today despite the bookies' prices on oddschecker remaining fairly constant at an average price of around 2.75. At the time of writing the same horse is available to lay on Betfair at 2.92, with the bookies average still around 2.75, so there was a solid trading opportunity.

Sometimes price drifts like this happen for whatever reason, for example it may just be big punters wanting to get their lay matched and are willing to increase their price in order to do so. Whatever the reasons, it's important to be prepared and ready to take advantage as a trader when they do so.

That was the biggest opportunity of the day. There were a few other borderline cases where I would look for a small movement in the price. The first one was a lay of Racing Demon at 6.0 in the 2.35. With a lot of the bookies also quoting 6.0, you would expect the Betfair price to drift out slightly and it did indeed do so. A lot was subsequently matched at 6.2, and a decent amount was matched at 6.4 as well.

Finally one other horse that was a potential trading candidate was Macs Joy in the 3.15. It was available to back at 8.2 earlier and looked slightly too high, with most of the bookies prices ranging between 5 and 6.5. However at the time of writing it's price has remained constant and is available to lay at 8.2 so I would probably have closed out at break-even as it's coming up to 1.00 when I stop trading. Sometimes prices just will not move despite them being too high or too low, and you have to cut your losses and accept a small loss or break even on the trade.

(UPDATE: Typically, Macs Joys' price did indeed come in significantly to around 7.2/7.4 soon after I posted this, despite the bookies' prices remaining constant).

Day 2

Firstly I'll start by saying that this morning I found the best trading opportunity so far this week in the shape of Kauto Star in the 3.15. Using oddschecker I noted that the majority of bookies were offering prices between 2.63 and 3, with just a few offering prices above this. The betting forecast on the Sporting Life website was 3. What price would you expect it to be on Betfair? 3.1 / 3.15 / 3.2? Well if you look on the charting history of Kauto Star, you will see that it's price at one point drifted out to between 3.3 and 3.4 despite the bookies prices remaining static. It stayed at this price for quite a while as well, with over £60,000 traded at 3.3 and 3.35. This was an incredibly high price considering most bookies elsewhere were accepting bets at less than 3. You'll see from the chart, that this price has dropped considerably since then and is now at a more realistic price at the time of writing of 3.1, so that would have been an excellent trade.

Elsewhere, Denman, another strong favourite, provided a solid trading opportunity in the first race at 2.00. Trading at between 2 and 2.1 pretty much across the board, it traded on Betfair at one point between 2.34 and 2.4 which would have been a decent low-risk trade. It remained generally in the range of 2.25-2.3 for most of the morning so there would have been plenty of time to close the bet for a nice profit.

Other than these two excellent opportunities, just one other horse caught my eye, and that was Equus Maximus in the final race at 5.20. Trading predominantly between 4 and 4.5 at the bookies this would have been an excellent trade at anything between 5.6 and 5.8, which it reached earlier (now 5.4 / 5.5).

Day 3

Trading opportunities amongst the really fancied horses this morning were few and far between, so I was forced to look for some slightly higher priced horses to trade today. I'll start with the 3.15 race. Firstly Ambobo, as low as 7, but generally between 7 and 9 with the bookies, was far too big at 12.5 earlier this morning, and this price soon disppeared, drifting in to the sort of price you would expect it to be at around 10.5. I don't personally like trading any horses above about 15 but there was a decent trading opportunity in the shape of No Refuge. Priced at 9-13 with a lot of bookies, it was available to back at a massive 21 at one point. It's now available to lay at a more realistic 16.5.

At the time of writing Blue Business in the 4.40 looks massive at 12.5, with the majority of the bookies offering prices between 6 and 8. However it's coming upto 1.00 so for me this would probably have been a no trade, despite it being so blatently overpriced. I'll make a point of checking back later as it will be interesting to see what happens to this price. I don't think it can sustain this level for long. It's as low as 6 with Victor Chandler!

(UPDATE: Blue Business did indeed slowly drift in during the course of the afternoon, going from 12.5 to around 10).

Day 4

The last day of the Cheltenham festival today, and there were still some decent trading opportunities to be had this morning. In the first race at 2.00, Mister Hight drifted right out to a very backable price of 5.9 a short while ago, despite the bookies odds being much lower at between 4.5 and 5. As I write this the same horse has come back in, and is now available to lay at 5.5, so that would have been a quick low-risk profitable trade.

There were a few reasonable trading opportunities in the 2.35 race. Firstly, Black Jack Ketchum (where do they get these names from?) was quoted at between 1.91 and 2.1 with the bookies listed on oddschecker, yet was available at 2.3 earlier. It now stands at 2.18 to lay, but at one point it did drop to 2.1, so this could potentially have been a very lucrative trade.

Another horse whose price has drifted right out to 16 at the time of writing, and looks far too big is Too Far Back in the same race. The bookmakers are currently quoting prices between 8 and 11 on the whole, so this is a horse to keep on eye on, although it's a little too close to the race to become a viable trade for me.

(UPDATE: The price did briefly touch 16.5 shortly after I posted this update but dropped, as expected, during the afternoon to around the 13 level). 

The only other potential trade I found was in the last race at 5.20. Publican was quoted at between 13 and 15 with the bookies. It was quoted at 23 on Betfair. I thought at the time that this was a borderline case, but in fact it's price did come in shortly afterwards to around 20. You have to be careful with these larger priced horses, as it can get costly if you get caught on the wrong side of a trade.